the Conservative Progress: From the old blog: I’m calling it: the race for PotUS is over.

This post originally appeared on my old blog, the Free Voice, on Oct. 28, 2004, and had more comments than any other post on there (granted, there were only 10, but I don't get that much traffic anyway).

Bush has it. In case you haven't seen it yet, go to Election Projection 2004 Edition. It has the current popular support (according to the polls) and how that breaks down into electoral votes, which are what really matter.

This election has really been over for a while, but the media wouldn't let it go. And who can blame them, a close race = higher ratings, higher ratings = higher ad revenues. But they may have stretched it too far this time. Granted the popular vote has stayed close, but as everyone should have learned in school, it is the Electoral College that elects the President of the United States, and the people simply elect the "electors" who vote for the candidates.

A lot of people bickered about having the Electoral College after the 2000 election, saying there is no need for it. Damn, there are some stupid people out there; either that, or it's the attitude of "I don't care, just so long as I have my way." The EC ( as we shall call it for this post) was created for the same reason as Congress is divided into two houses: to allow for representative government without having the larger states completing dominating the political landscape, thereby turning the smaller states into thier fiefdoms.

Unfortunately, many people are never taught this and do not learn until their candidate loses "when he should have won", or some bullshit like that. (nevermind the fact the Bill Clinton only garnered 43% when elected to his first term.) Of course, I could go into how this "failure" to have the public properly educated is one of the many desperate attempts by the Dems to hold power.

The fact is the race is over, and Kerry knows it. It should be clear by now when celebrities supporting Kerry can't draw big crowds in the battleground state of Florida while W has to relocate a Jacksonville rally to accomodate the huge turnout.

I count this a blessing; Kerry is seen as weak by those outside the US (another "Tomahawk thrower") which is the last thing we need in today's political environment. That and Teresa Heinz scares the shit out of me.

Tuesday should be fun.

::Update::
Instapundit is quoting a report on the Kerry campaign's big rally in Madison, Wis., to encourage supporters to vote early. The main idea was to get the people at the rally to then march down the street to the clerks office and cast their early votes. But apparently this idea did not work nearly as well as the Dems had hoped.

The comments that followed:

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2004-10-28 @ 12:10:02 pm
That Guy
A couple of things:

1) I like how you … “omit” … that, while Clinton only had 43% of the electorate in 1992, he still had more than Bush (at 37%) and Perot (at 18%). Unlike Bush II, who had 47% to Gore’s 48%. From your site: http://www.presidentelect.org/e2000.html

2) http://www.electoral-vote.com begs to differ with your conclusions.

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2004-10-28 @ 2:10:41 pm
Daniel
That is electoral.

Further, that’s not what I heard: electoral-vote.com says Kerry is the projected winner by six electoral votes. Battleground states are still too close to call. With a statistical error of about 5%, Bush would have to be ahead by thousands of votes.

The electoral vote projections are based on polls of individual voters. The difference is the application of the results.

I concur with your prediction, but using polling data to support it in an election as close as this one would seem to be a mistake.

Democrats have already begun legal wranglings, and I don’t expect them to play the happy losers.

2004-10-28 @ 4:10:45 pm [ Edit - Delete - Unapprove ]
Jeremy ( jspepper@gmail.com / http://pop-pr.blogspot.com ) (IP: 66.213.227.34 )
Okay, so while Election Projection has Bush ahead, Electoral Vote (electoral-vote.com) has Kerry ahead in the EC count (260-254).

Both sites seem to have formulas in place to calculate the winners, and I know that Electoral-Vote’s site changes daily as he gets in new polling numbers.

You might be a bit early in calling the election, but if you’re wrong, what is your repentance going to be?

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2004-10-28 @ 6:10:37 pm
site admin
Granted, there are still a few days left, in which time people can change their minds. Plus, these are guestimates based off of polls which are far from fool proof. But what you are missing is the other half of my basis for projecting W to win:

The Kerry campaign is beginning to look to me like it may be in its death throes (the poorly attended rallies, bringing on advisors from the Clinton campaigns, even Bill Clinton himself was joining the campaigning effort for Kerry). All I am saying is that it looks like Kerry is in big trouble, knows it, and does not have enough time to over come it.

I’m also trying to point out that this race hasn’t been as close as the media has been protraying it since the debates, but that they have been trying to spin it as such to keep the public’s attention on this. Now, whether the intent is for good or not I’ll leave you to decide.

But you should definitely read this about CBS’s intended plan for releasing the story about the “missing” explosives in Iraq.
Also, read this one.
And there is also this from ABC News.

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2004-10-28 @ 6:10:13 pm
site admin
Something interesting I just came across on The Fourth Rail.

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2004-10-28 @ 7:10:13 pm
Jeremy
Well, you found the secret for commenting and traffic - blog on something that is controversial

I voted already, so I’m all good, but I’m glad also to see you stepping it up, and that your blankie is back.

Have fun!

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2004-10-29 @ 12:10:45 am
site admin
Actually, my laptop is still undergoing the last of its repairs (the guy either got a little backed up or didn’t have the part needed in stock). But I should have it back for the weekend so I can begin the rebuilding process.

As for the commenting and traffic, I think its actually two keys:
1. Blog on something controversial.
2. Take a stand on it that others out there will either:
a) disagree with enough to want to respond, or
b) relate with enough to post supporting or consenting opinions.

But with that, I must finally quit and go study for my soil science test that is in seven hours and 45 minutes.

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2004-10-29 @ 2:10:21 am
Robert
War D*mn Bush!
http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2004/102004/10272004/1548870

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2004-11-1 @ 9:11:11 pm
Jeremy
Hey Matt,

I wasn’t calling you out in my post today - it was an overall statement about political blogs. I read Little Green Footballs, and it’s amazing to watch the knee jerk reaction to anyone that disagrees with them. I’ve posted comments there, and it’s amazing to see the rabid response.

I view your post here as someone that supports the President, but has already called the election. I just used your blog to act as a counterpoint to what C/Net had written - and that they are probably wrong.

Hope you did well on the soil science test.

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2004-11-1 @ 10:11:36 pm
site admin
Thanks for the reply. Honestly, I hadn’t noticed my omission until your post, and I honestly did mean to have a couple of references to Daily Kos.

And, yes, I didn’t do too bad on that test.

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